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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement is handed the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and longtime also-rans rising in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still